MB and political challenges ahead

Qudsna, Mehdi Goljan (Managing director of Islamic Thought Foundation; university prof.):

Many out there maintain that the ouster of former Egyptian president Mohamad Mursi was an end to the era of Muslim Brotherhood in the country. It seems to be exaggeration however the developments of the past few months in Egypt show the situation has become very complex for the party.

As the largest Sunni political group, the Muslim Brotherhood in its 85-year political life has never had to tackle such a massive challenge. On the other hand, the complex political situation at place in Egypt makes it difficult to speculate about the likely distribution of power or the composition of the future political order.

The Egyptian community has always been regarded as a model for other Arab nations in terms of convergence and unanimity of various sectarian, religious and political groups. However, the ill-advised policies of Mursi's ousted government, including its reticence towards extremist Salafi groups helped ushere in an era of conflict after years of peaceful coexistence in the country. Egypt is now witnessing growing clashes between Mursi's supporters and his opponents.

Muslim Brotherhood committed major mistakes as the ruling party and failed to use its historical opportunity partly due to lack of experience, though procrastination of rival parties was also to blame. The party failed to make good on its election vows and pushed itself to the brink by adopting controversial policies.

What does the party's prospect look like? It appears to have three options ahead.

The party may continue to underline legitimacy of Mursi and urge its supporters to keep protests against the provisional government. The approach appears useless and even would fan the unrest and further pushe Egypt to instability.

The party may also acknowledge the existing conditions and recognize the provisional government in a bid to have a share in the country's political system. Though appearing logical, the option is not viable as the Egyptian government backed by the army seeks to dissolve the party.

A third available option is to turn to underground activities by taking up arms against the provisional government. The party has already experienced armed confrontation against the ousted regime of Hosni Mubarak however the situation on the ground in Egypt never allows the party to repeat the history. By taking arms, Muslim Brotherhood actually signs its death certificate as it provides an excuse for the army to do away with the party.

The party has a gloomy prospect ahead except that an unexpected situation unfolds.